Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4807…d57b
crypto · 75 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$2 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses31 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
Avg bet$5
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$9 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$18 +416%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$6 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$16 +387%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$11 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$9 +408%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$6 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% +$2
other 8% +$1
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +20.1% +8.6% 42% 41% -9.1%
≤30d 73 +20.1% +8.6% 42% 41% -9.1%
≤90d 73 +20.1% +8.6% 42% 41% -9.1%
all 73 +20.1% +8.6% 42% 41% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.6% 41% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -1.8% 40% -17.8%
15% -11.2% 37% -25.7%
20% -19.9% 36% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.70 · official $28.70 (match) · 174 history records