Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x480d…9034
crypto · 56 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$185 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$185 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses15 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 0 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by June 30? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 10? No 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 10? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 10? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 10? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by May 31? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by May 15? No 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$18 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$14 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$17 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 10 $28 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 10 $25 −$14 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 10 $52 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 10 $53 −$7 -12%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 10 $81 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 10 $67 −$12 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 10 $16 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 10 $16 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 10 $41 −$29 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 10 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 10 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 10 $21 +$11 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 10 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 10 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +9%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$176
other 0% −$3
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $12 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $12 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $26 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 6¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -35.2% -41.4% 44% 33% -24.0%
≤30d 18 -35.2% -41.4% 44% 33% -24.0%
≤90d 56 -53.3% -57.8% 27% 18% -29.3%
all 56 -53.3% -57.8% 27% 18% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.8% 18% -29.3%
10% -61.8% 11% -36.1%
15% -65.5% 7% -42.2%
20% -68.9% 4% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records