Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x480f…f945 world 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
politics 23% −$1
other 14% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% +$2
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 61 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage321d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $74 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $55 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $12 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $1 $0 -18%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 19 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 19 $24 $0 -2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 18 $2 +$1 +83%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 16 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $35 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $24 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $24 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $5 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 27h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $19 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $25 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $39 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $28 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $8 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $33 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records