Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4812…d20d other 71 markets active 11h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$156 (+15%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 45L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$28
14 days+$188
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$127
crypto 25% −$23
sports 13% +$1
finance 5% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 35% -3.7%
≤30d 40 +35.3% +22.4% 35% 32% +11.2%
≤90d 70 +2.5% -7.2% 36% 34% +2.4%
all 70 +2.5% -7.2% 36% 34% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 34% +2.4%
10% -16.1% 30% -7.4%
15% -24.2% 27% -16.4%
20% -31.6% 21% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage54d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +129%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +76%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$8 -77%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -92%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $11 −$9 -80%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$73 +712%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$19 +185%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$5 -10%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$2 +17%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -32%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 +$56 +550%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1521%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 07 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 07 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 07 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 14¢ $2 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 24¢ $29 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.09 · official $5.09 (match) · 154 history records