Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4814…bd5d crypto 1979 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$453 (+2%) realized +$453 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate70%1514W / 661L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day51.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$593
7 days−$570
14 days−$224
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$830
other 5% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 528 -48.6% -53.5% 38% 23% -31.9%
≤30d 1268 -15.7% -23.7% 64% 46% -9.2%
≤90d 2175 -7.5% -16.3% 70% 53% -9.3%
all 2175 -7.5% -16.3% 70% 53% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 53% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 31% -18.0%
15% -31.6% 19% -25.9%
20% -38.3% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$453
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1514 / 661
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2175 / 1979
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2175 Trades
no open positions (496 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $94 3m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $86 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $94 6h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $86 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 9h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 16h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 19h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.84 · official $4.84 (match) · 3500 history records