Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x4814…a3eb sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 759d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,952 (-86%) realized −$2,952 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$501
7 days−$2,933
14 days−$2,933
30 days−$2,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$2,661
crypto 14% −$251
other 2% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -45.6% -50.8% 27% 18% -90.3%
≤30d 11 -45.6% -50.8% 27% 18% -90.3%
≤90d 11 -45.6% -50.8% 27% 18% -90.3%
all 18 -31.8% -38.3% 39% 33% -88.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 33% -88.9%
10% -44.2% 33% -90.0%
15% -49.6% 17% -90.9%
20% -54.5% 17% -91.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$281 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

759d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,952
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage759d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $25 $0 -2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $2,202 −$2,189 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $89 +$6 +7%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Manchester United beat Twente? Sep 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? Jun 07 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Dallas Stars win the 2024 Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $10 +$3 +33%
Real Madrid vs. Dortmund: Champions League Final Jun 07 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin all time high by Friday? May 25 $10 +$10 +96%
Will ETH hit $4k by Friday? May 23 $10 −$7 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 51¢ $25 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 51¢ $25 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 51¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $507 17h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2,202 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 48¢ $49 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 48¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 48¢ $31 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 48¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $89 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 56¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $15 6d
Will Manchester United beat Twente? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 633d
Will ETH hit $4k by Friday? SELL No 21¢ $3 757d
Will Manchester City win the FA Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 759d
Real Madrid vs. Dortmund: Champions League Final BUY Real Madrid 74¢ $10 759d
Will Real Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 759d
Dallas Stars win the 2024 Stanley Cup? BUY No 75¢ $10 759d
Bitcoin all time high by Friday? BUY No 51¢ $10 759d
Will ETH hit $4k by Friday? BUY No 68¢ $10 759d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records