Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4818…bf0b
other · 315 markets active 18h ago
5.0score
+$224,156 +42%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$104,367 · open −$4,518
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$70,593
Realized+$104,367
Unrealized−$4,518
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses99 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions197
Markets (closed)217 / 315
Avg bet$1,677
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 197 History 217 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$87,470
14 days+$88,837
30 days+$90,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $8,350 $9,050 +$700 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 89¢ $6,062 $7,390 +$1,328 (+22%)
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $6,908 $6,873 −$35 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 74¢ 99¢ $4,082 $5,456 +$1,374 (+34%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 66¢ $2,423 $4,052 +$1,629 (+67%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 87¢ 94¢ $3,051 $3,268 +$217 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 65¢ 26¢ $6,130 $2,405 −$3,725 (-61%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 71¢ 50¢ $3,253 $2,319 −$934 (-29%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,000 $2,078 +$78 (+4%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 43¢ $2,859 $1,782 −$1,077 (-38%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 61¢ 86¢ $1,109 $1,551 +$442 (+40%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $969 $1,195 +$226 (+23%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 18¢ $3,836 $1,095 −$2,741 (-71%)
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $757 $1,032 +$275 (+36%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 33¢ 18¢ $1,691 $896 −$794 (-47%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 84¢ $551 $895 +$344 (+62%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 96¢ $579 $868 +$288 (+50%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 12¢ 36¢ $276 $843 +$568 (+206%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 71¢ 24¢ $2,438 $828 −$1,610 (-66%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 69¢ 74¢ $630 $681 +$52 (+8%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July? No 94¢ 86¢ $728 $664 −$64 (-9%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 60¢ 78¢ $503 $659 +$155 (+31%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $381 $584 +$203 (+53%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 67¢ 52¢ $686 $530 −$156 (-23%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 69¢ 59¢ $554 $474 −$80 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 12 $61 −$76 -125%
Will Yeom Tae-yeong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elect Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $11 +$2 +14%
Will Thomas Tuchel be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jun 12 $24 −$14 -58%
Will Gareth Southgate be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -94%
Will Xavi be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jun 12 $0 +$22 +27303%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 12 $0 +$6 +1590%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 12 $4 +$20 +463%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$114 +57%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $76 +$126 +166%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,956 −$24 -1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $60 −$59 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $712 −$19 -3%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$14 +54%
Will Sean Collinson advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Pr Jun 10 $57 +$2 +4%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $34 −$33 -98%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$8 +79%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $34 −$11 -32%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$13 +70%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1,064 +$793 +75%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1,947 +$37,171 +1909%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 8? Jun 08 $9,617 +$50,682 +527%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $449 +$144 +32%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,507 −$1,469 -98%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -98%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $21 +$13 +62%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $194 +$89 +46%
Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $338 −$334 -99%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $24 −$24 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $563 +$562 +100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $88,811 +$1,189 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 03 $4,772 −$5 -0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +61%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $94 +$65 +70%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 1? May 30 $245 −$240 -98%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 27? May 30 $4 +$4 +96%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 29? May 30 $5 +$5 +113%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27? May 30 $23 +$77 +341%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $75 +$159 +212%
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives May 29 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Ant Middleton not summit Everest by June 30? May 29 $46 +$4 +10%
Will Rhett Marques be the Republican nominee for AL-01? May 29 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? May 29 $81 −$36 -44%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $53 −$52 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$7,343
sports 24% +$25,270
crypto 17% +$344
politics 11% +$425
world 7% −$1,244
culture 4% +$28
tech 3% +$83,054
economics 2% +$1,282
finance 0% −$1,900
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 66¢ $85 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 62¢ $10 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 62¢ $9 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 62¢ $72 18h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 56¢ $23 18h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 30¢ $6 23h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 37¢ $76 32h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $194 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $150 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $487 34h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 50¢ $60 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $70 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $50 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $89 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $693 46h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 65¢ $20 46h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 64¢ $6 46h
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 47h
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Partizan Sangal 13¢ $34 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $2,292 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +212.3% +182.6% 55% 52% +430.2%
≤30d 140 +62.1% +46.6% 42% 34% +29.2%
≤90d 217 +54.6% +39.9% 46% 31% +10.3%
all 217 +54.6% +39.9% 46% 31% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.9% 31% +10.3%
10% +26.5% 28% -0.2%
15% ← realistic here +14.3% 25% -9.9%
20% +3.1% 24% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70,593.01 · official $70,640.55 (match) · 3500 history records