Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x481d…5f8d other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$21
sports 23% −$5
politics 22% −$9
crypto 10% −$7
economics 7% +$2
culture 5% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$3
finance 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 130 +0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage162d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $63 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $254 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $406 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $782 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $610 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 27 $194 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 26 $591 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $215 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 25 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $599 −$1 -0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 23 $194 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 23 $408 −$5 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 22 $382 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $389 −$2 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $201 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $408 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 19 $402 −$4 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 17 $210 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 17 $201 +$1 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $434 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $408 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $215 −$1 -1%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 13 $215 −$3 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $214 −$3 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 11 $227 −$1 -1%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $367 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 09 $222 +$6 +3%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $214 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $223 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $29 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 95¢ $29 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $50 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $51 15d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $61 22d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $63 23d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 36d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 36d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $194 83d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $12 83d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $182 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $191 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $144 84d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 84d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 84d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $7 84d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $186 84d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $186 84d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $184 84d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $185 84d
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $192 84d
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $192 85d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $184 85d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $86 85d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $98 85d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $191 85d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $191 85d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $194 85d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $194 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.21 · official $43.21 (match) · 552 history records