Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x481d…08c5 weather 412 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$682 (-1%) realized −$707 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%359W / 38L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$44
14 days+$117
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% −$1,213
crypto 15% +$574
other 11% −$116
politics 9% −$87
world 3% −$19
finance 1% +$14
sports 1% +$142
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 2% -9.2%
≤30d 120 -1.6% -11.0% 94% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 265 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 3% -10.7%
all 397 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -10.1%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$76 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$2,395
Realized−$707
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses359 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)397 / 412
History coverage610d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $377 $385 +$9 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $350 $349 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $237 $238 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $186 $186 −$0 (-0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $162 $180 +$19 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $131 $131 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? No 98¢ 96¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$16 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $33 −$22 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $168 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $447 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $575 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $846 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $220 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $299 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $512 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +122%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $829 +$16 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $802 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $503 +$7 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $162 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1,597 +$6 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 10? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on June 10? Jun 10 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 9? Jun 10 $402 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $281 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $64 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $70 56m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $52 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $298 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $129 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $110 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $186 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $199 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $33 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $237 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $106 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $115 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $334 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $113 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $78 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $53 35h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $114 35h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $46 35h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $398 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $498 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,394.56 · official $2,394.56 (match) · 1630 history records