Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:55:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x481e…b1e4 other 444 markets active 1h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,872 (-7%) realized −$2,872 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate40%178W / 263L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$63
14 days+$34
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$679
other 19% −$733
world 12% −$1,314
sports 6% +$229
politics 6% −$271
economics 0% −$98
tech 0% −$12
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +68.0% +52.0% 41% 36% -1.4%
≤30d 34 +34.1% +21.4% 32% 29% -1.5%
≤90d 41 +22.5% +10.8% 32% 29% +5.1%
all 441 -7.2% -16.1% 40% 28% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 28% -15.0%
10% -24.1% 22% -23.1%
15% -31.4% 20% -30.6%
20% -38.1% 16% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$2,872
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses178 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)441 / 444
History coverage364d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $227 −$16 -7%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal to score fir Jun 23 $10 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $43 +$4 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $181 +$24 +13%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $61 −$27 -44%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $16 −$10 -60%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 +$47 +461%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 +$1 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $7 +$13 +183%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $14 −$4 -31%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$34 +1116%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $216 −$9 -4%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 30 $47 +$39 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$31 +299%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$1 -8%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $97 +$43 +44%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 07 $3 −$2 -67%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $71 −$29 -41%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 30 $139 +$177 +127%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $6 +$8 +154%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $11 −$8 -77%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $82 +$13 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 14 $11 −$2 -22%
Will Trump say "Where are you" during Women's History Month event? Mar 13 $12 +$28 +233%
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 05 $1,724 −$579 -34%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $127 −$123 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 72¢ $212 34m
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 50¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $11 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal to score fir SELL 56¢ $9 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 70¢ $14 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 63¢ $20 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 63¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 81¢ $70 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 88¢ $88 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 88¢ $9 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal to score fir BUY 64¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $47 17h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $21 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $21 17h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $14 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $181 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 14¢ $6 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $6 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $0 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $21 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $2 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $2 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $0 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $1 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $1 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $5 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.72 · official $25.72 (match) · 2067 history records