Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
48 0x4821…00d7 world 109 markets active 4d ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%47W / 61L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$0
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$13
politics 22% +$3
other 18% +$1
sports 18% +$3
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 12% 12% -10.1%
≤30d 26 +0.4% -9.1% 35% 8% -9.9%
≤90d 46 -0.5% -9.9% 35% 4% -9.6%
all 108 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses47 / 61
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage479d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $106 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 25 $155 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $3 $0 -7%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $13 +$2 +17%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $156 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $211 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $78 −$6 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $35 +$6 +17%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $140 −$2 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $141 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $189 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $145 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $158 −$5 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $86 −$5 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $162 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $156 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $319 −$6 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $446 +$3 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $492 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $391 −$8 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $136 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $322 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $168 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $167 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $152 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $12 −$2 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $309 +$5 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $64 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $162 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $11 $0 -4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $1 $0 -16%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $989 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,971 +$3 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,085 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,083 +$1 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 87¢ $155 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $155 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $18 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 5d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $72 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.00 (match) · 425 history records