Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4821…cf7c sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% $0
other 30% −$1
sports 26% +$3
politics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -15.2% -23.3% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -13.5% -21.8% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -2.5% -11.7% 25% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -8.8%
10% -20.2% 5% -17.5%
15% -27.9% 5% -25.5%
20% -35.0% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage485d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 −$1 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $23 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $10 $0 -1%
Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Mar 04 $13 −$3 -22%
NJIT vs. Binghamton Mar 04 $14 −$1 -8%
Wyoming vs. Fresno State Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
LSU vs. Kentucky Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Putin' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
Stonehill vs. Wagner Mar 03 $7 +$7 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $34 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 21h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $3 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $28 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $32 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $0 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $2 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 67¢ $33 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 65¢ $16 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 65¢ $16 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $34 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $34 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 97¢ $1 339d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $1 339d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $1 356d
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? SELL No 100¢ $8 356d
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? BUY No 96¢ $8 426d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $2 436d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records