Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4823…644c weather 1336 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$929 (-8%) realized −$931 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -89% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -91% what you keep after slip
Net edge-91%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%27W / 1284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$365
14 days+$370
30 days+$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$598
other 28% −$90
world 10% −$51
politics 4% −$11
finance 4% −$6
crypto 1% −$6
tech 1% −$6
weather 0% −$41
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-89.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +21.9% +10.3% 67% 67% +7.1%
≤30d 28 +17.2% +6.0% 50% 50% -0.5%
≤90d 843 -82.7% -84.3% 3% 3% -15.8%
all 1311 -88.6% -89.7% 2% 2% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -89.7% 2% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -90.7% 2% -24.0%
15% -91.6% 1% -31.4%
20% -92.4% 1% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -89% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -96% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$2 · ×28.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$931
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses27 / 1284
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1311 / 1336
History coverage94d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $154 $156 +$2 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for CF Montréal next? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+769%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Columbus Crew next? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+315%)
Will Aljamain Sterling be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Joshua Van be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Denver Broncos next? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for D.C. United next? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Will Jason Clark win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Liam Ruck be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alessandro Di Iorio be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Will Adam Nemec be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Mathis Preston be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alberts Smits be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Giorgos Pantelas be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Alexander Command be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Niklas Aaram-Olsen be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jack Hextall be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Santos Matheus Cunha win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 478 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $103 −$66 -64%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$23 +22%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 +$73 +72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$41 +41%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$88 +44%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $100 +$203 +203%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $140 −$40 -28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $139 +$21 +15%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $145 −$47 -32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $78 −$10 -13%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $46 +$31 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $131 −$88 -67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 +$23 +24%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$214 -42%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $335 −$251 -75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$92 +23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $86 +$450 +524%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $133 −$47 -35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $133 −$11 -8%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $2,280 −$955 -42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 15 $65 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $70 −$2 -3%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $390 −$4 -1%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 14 $25 −$3 -13%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $370 −$52 -14%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $325 $0 -0%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $18 $0 -2%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) Apr 11 $591 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $50 −$2 -4%
RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $227 +$3 +1%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $225 −$5 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 11 $49 −$1 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 11 $425 −$22 -5%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $199 −$4 -2%
Spread: Warriors (-11.5) Apr 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 10 $10 $0 -4%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 10 $34 −$1 -2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $65 −$7 -11%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 10 $140 −$11 -8%
Will Logan Thompson win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Apr 10 $0 $0 +100%
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Apr 10 $87 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $156 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $37 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $123 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 16h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 17h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $142 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $154 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $302 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 59¢ $100 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $140 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $160 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $139 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $21 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $67 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $68 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 71¢ $78 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $77 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $77 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.50 · official $156.50 (match) · 3197 history records