Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4826…462a
other · 100 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$95 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage220d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 3 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 94¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: England vs India England 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 24? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Mumbai Indians 46¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand South Africa 38¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
ODI Series New Zealand vs Zimbabwe, Women: New Zealand vs Zimbabwe Zimbabwe 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Chennai Super Kings 49¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? No 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Kings Chennai Super Kings 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 −$7 -54%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$3 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 01 $4 −$4 -96%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $65 +$2 +3%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $10 +$13 +132%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $12 −$11 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch? Mar 24 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Mar 24 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 24 $14 −$10 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 24 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 24 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 24 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 24 $7 +$9 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 24 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 24 $1 +$1 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24? Mar 24 $4 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 24? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$32
crypto 27% −$17
sports 23% −$42
weather 2% −$1
politics 1% +$1
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $15 47m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 72¢ $15 48m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 90¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 88¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -40.1% -45.8% 33% 17% -41.7%
≤30d 21 -21.7% -29.1% 57% 33% -19.3%
≤90d 58 -39.2% -45.0% 38% 22% -28.5%
all 97 -24.8% -31.9% 40% 27% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 27% -22.5%
10% -38.5% 20% -29.9%
15% -44.4% 15% -36.7%
20% -49.9% 11% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.09 · official $35.09 (match) · 203 history records