Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4827…080d
sports · 1260 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$7,013 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,031 · open +$82
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,257
Realized+$7,031
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1144 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions53
Markets (closed)1207 / 1260
History coverage87d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 53 History 1207 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$501
7 days+$1,484
14 days+$1,786
30 days+$3,981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Spurs 97¢ 99¢ $1,100 $1,118 +$19 (+2%)
Aguada Santeros vs. Mets de Guaynabo Mets de Guaynabo 98¢ 100¢ $577 $590 +$13 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes 40¢ 98¢ $152 $374 +$222 (+146%)
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Saskatchewan Roughriders 91¢ 99¢ $285 $310 +$25 (+9%)
Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $281 $289 +$8 (+3%)
Will Olympiacos Piraeus win Greek Basketball League? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $265 $270 +$6 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 97¢ 98¢ $177 $178 +$2 (+1%)
Will Paloma Valencia win between 25% and 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 96¢ 100¢ $165 $172 +$6 (+4%)
Will Iván Cepeda win between 45% and 50% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 94¢ 97¢ $161 $166 +$5 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $162 $166 +$4 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $162 $160 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Germany 98¢ 99¢ $148 $150 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Germany 98¢ 100¢ $140 $142 +$3 (+2%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+? No 97¢ 99¢ $137 $140 +$3 (+3%)
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Quimsa 97¢ 100¢ $135 $138 +$3 (+2%)
Will Dubai Basketball win ABA League? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $124 $126 +$2 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) PortlandFire 98¢ 50¢ $212 $107 −$106 (-50%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $110 $96 −$14 (-12%)
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Brazil 99¢ 100¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Spain 98¢ 100¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $89 $78 −$10 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $84 $74 −$9 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $63 +$1 +1%
1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 14 $48 $0 +1%
1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $268 +$3 +1%
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $264 +$3 +1%
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 14 $202 +$3 +2%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) Jun 14 $317 +$3 +1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 14 $402 +$6 +2%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $4,940 +$197 +4%
Will Bath win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $4,000 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $2,050 −$43 -2%
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 13 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Blues win? Jun 13 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Leicester Tigers win the 2026 English Premiership Rugby Final? Jun 13 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $5 +$24 +492%
Will England go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $21 +$78 +375%
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $9 +$10 +117%
Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +277%
Will Algeria go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $4 +$12 +296%
Will Egypt go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $10 +$41 +426%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $6 +$29 +497%
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Türkiye go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +257%
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +272%
Will Colombia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $2 +$7 +331%
Will Canada go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $11 +$39 +345%
Will Mexico go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $7 +$36 +544%
Will Belgium go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $3 +$16 +605%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $30 −$4 -15%
Will CSKA Moscow win VTB United League? Jun 12 $199 +$8 +4%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $26 −$6 -23%
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $17 $0 -1%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $11 −$7 -61%
Will Malick Thiaw be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -17%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will Marquinhos be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Miles Robinson be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIF Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will Sergino Dest be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Matt Freese be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA W Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will UNICS Kazan win VTB United League? Jun 12 $227 +$10 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $437 +$63 +14%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $436 +$13 +3%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $632 +$68 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% +$5,680
other 17% +$948
politics 7% +$316
world 2% −$7
culture 0% +$154
weather 0% +$3
crypto 0% +$21
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) BUY PortlandFire 98¢ $212 11m
Gigantes de Carolina vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce BUY Gigantes de Carolina 36¢ $29 17m
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa BUY Quimsa 97¢ $135 19m
Piratas de Quebradillas vs. Capitanes de Arecibo BUY Capitanes de Arecibo 99¢ $5 29m
Spread: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-2.5) BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 98¢ $107 48m
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 98¢ $116 49m
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 95¢ $35 51m
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 94¢ $57 53m
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders: O/U 52.5 BUY Over 99¢ $114 55m
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 81¢ $7 56m
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 80¢ $59 56m
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY Saskatchewan Roughriders 80¢ $12 56m
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 99¢ $264 1h
1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 99¢ $268 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 93¢ $21 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 93¢ $10 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 94¢ $21 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 96¢ $42 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 99¢ $63 1h
Aguada Santeros vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Mets de Guaynabo 99¢ $44 1h
Aguada Santeros vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Mets de Guaynabo 99¢ $99 1h
Aguada Santeros vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Mets de Guaynabo 99¢ $140 1h
Aguada Santeros vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Mets de Guaynabo 98¢ $49 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Spurs 99¢ $12 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5) BUY Spurs 99¢ $48 1h
Aguada Santeros vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Mets de Guaynabo 98¢ $68 1h
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) BUY Spurs 97¢ $971 1h
Aguada Santeros vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Mets de Guaynabo 97¢ $35 1h
Aguada Santeros vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Mets de Guaynabo 96¢ $86 1h
Aguada Santeros vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Mets de Guaynabo 93¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +46.1% +32.2% 79% 22% -4.4%
≤30d 383 +8.1% -2.2% 88% 10% -6.0%
≤90d 1207 +8.7% -1.7% 95% 6% -6.4%
all 1207 +8.7% -1.7% 95% 6% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 6% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -15.4%
15% -19.7% 3% -23.6%
20% -27.5% 2% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,257.39 · official $6,257.39 (match) · 3500 history records