Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x482b…3266 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (879 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$43,350 (+49%) realized +$42,959 · open +$391
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 141L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,878per market
Trades / day879.0pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$9,522now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$197
crypto 11% +$138
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (879 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-64.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -60.8% -64.5% 8% 5% -32.6%
≤30d 153 -60.8% -64.5% 8% 5% -32.6%
≤90d 153 -60.8% -64.5% 8% 5% -32.6%
all 153 -60.8% -64.5% 8% 5% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover879.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.5% 5% -32.6%
10% ← realistic here -67.9% 5% -39.0%
15% -71.0% 4% -44.9%
20% -73.9% 4% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -77% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
78.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$142 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9,522
Realized+$42,959
Unrealized+$391
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions23
Markets (closed)153 / 23
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$3,878
Trades / day879.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,992 $3,053 +$60 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,196 $2,246 +$50 (+2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $833 $917 +$83 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $755 $771 +$16 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $736 $759 +$23 (+3%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 87¢ 90¢ $400 $412 +$12 (+3%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 60¢ 48¢ $293 $231 −$63 (-21%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 58¢ $115 $200 +$85 (+73%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? Yes 10¢ 30¢ $61 $183 +$122 (+201%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $149 $162 +$13 (+9%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $97 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 32¢ 21¢ $123 $81 −$42 (-34%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $33 $38 +$6 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $10 $26 +$17 (+177%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+74%)
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 11¢ 28¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+151%)
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+104%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $1,844 −$1,910 -104%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +22%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 17 $247 −$247 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu Jun 17 $178 −$178 -100%
Valorant: OXEN vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S Jun 17 $33 −$34 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $367 −$367 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qual Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $371 −$371 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $17 +$205 +1202%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MIBR (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs DOCISK (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q3 2025? Jun 17 $144 −$142 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 17 $91 −$108 -119%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Seas Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 17 $0 +$130 +955088%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Q Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: DOCISK vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 0m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $205 2m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 3m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 11m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $280 12m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 13m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 13m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 13m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 14m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $87 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,521.52 · official $9,522.78 (match) · 3500 history records