Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x482c…cbe8 sports 701 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$469 (-3%) realized −$469 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%431W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$225
14 days+$266
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$130
other 19% −$308
crypto 1% −$27
world 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +9.2% -1.2% 79% 58% -5.2%
≤30d 114 +7.5% -2.8% 77% 59% -5.5%
≤90d 238 -1.0% -10.5% 69% 58% -10.8%
all 693 -4.0% -13.1% 62% 58% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 58% -12.3%
10% -21.5% 46% -20.7%
15% -29.0% 33% -28.3%
20% -36.0% 23% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$469
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses431 / 262
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)693 / 701
History coverage163d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 693 Trades
no open positions (221 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $256 +$37 +14%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $50 −$2 -4%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $70 −$55 -78%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$11 +57%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $15 +$10 +64%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $50 +$14 +27%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $150 +$8 +5%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $55 +$9 +16%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $100 +$6 +6%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $30 +$2 +5%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $25 +$6 +24%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $151 +$20 +13%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $43 −$6 -15%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $20 −$1 -3%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $30 +$5 +17%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $200 +$5 +2%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $15 +$9 +62%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $171 −$170 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $40 −$34 -85%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $25 +$28 +111%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$10 +42%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $220 +$10 +4%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $65 +$8 +12%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $131 +$21 +16%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $139 +$13 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: Jun 26 $101 +$41 +40%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $25 +$6 +24%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $30 +$4 +13%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $50 +$5 +10%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $125 +$5 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -66%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 +$8 +30%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $15 +$2 +16%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $15 +$5 +32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $20 +$3 +13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 +$6 +24%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $50 +$7 +13%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $176 −$18 -10%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$8 +27%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $90 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $293 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 92¢ $30 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $55 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 77¢ $15 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 58¢ $19 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $20 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $158 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $50 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $50 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $150 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $64 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $105 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $106 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 91¢ $32 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $25 4h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $30 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $30 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 5h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 5h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $25 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1320 history records