Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

48 0x482e…39c7 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$321 (+28%) realized +$335 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%9W / 6L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 235d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-8.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+37.0%	+23.9%	100%	100%	+23.9%
≤30d	1	+37.0%	+23.9%	100%	100%	+23.9%
≤90d	1	+37.0%	+23.9%	100%	100%	+23.9%
all	15	+0.9%	-8.7%	60%	60%	+28.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.7%	60%	+28.8%
10%	-17.4%	53%	+16.5%
15%	-25.4%	47%	+5.2%
20%	-32.7%	40%	-5.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -43% → late +39% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$49 vs −$18 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage

Net worth$353

Realized+$335

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses9 / 6

Open positions4

Markets (closed)15 / 19

History coverage235d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$149	$131	−$18 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	20¢	$98	$120	+$22 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$104	$83	−$20 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$16	$19	+$2 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$70	+$26	+37%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$20	+$6	+32%
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$20	+$15	+73%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$20	+$18	+88%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$20	+$19	+94%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$172	+$31	+18%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$20	+$15	+73%
Will Leicester City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw?	Nov 01	$10	−$10	-97%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-01?	Nov 01	$10	−$10	-100%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands	Oct 29	$178	+$94	+53%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen	Oct 29	$152	+$218	+144%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$95	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$70	29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$153	29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$17	9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$83	9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$87	9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$18	9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$19	9d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	60¢	$40	231d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-01?	SELL Yes	87¢	$26	231d
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-01?	SELL Yes	97¢	$35	231d
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01?	SELL Yes	94¢	$38	231d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01?	SELL Yes	93¢	$39	231d
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	56¢	$20	231d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	231d
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	50¢	$20	231d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-01?	SELL Yes	99¢	$203	231d
Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01?	SELL Yes	97¢	$35	231d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	84¢	$172	231d
Will Leicester City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	231d
Will Leicester City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	231d
Will Villarreal win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	56¢	$20	231d
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	55¢	$20	231d
Will Napoli win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	231d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	35¢	$10	231d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	231d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	231d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands	SELL No	87¢	$272	234d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen	SELL Yes	88¢	$370	234d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands	BUY No	57¢	$28	234d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.10 · official $353.10 (match) · 43 history records