Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x4830…f86b other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$152 · open +$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$46
sports 18% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-70.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -67.9% -70.9% 25% 25% -93.8%
≤30d 4 -67.9% -70.9% 25% 25% -93.8%
≤90d 4 -67.9% -70.9% 25% 25% -93.8%
all 4 -67.9% -70.9% 25% 25% -93.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -70.9% 25% -93.8%
10% ← realistic here -73.7% 0% -94.4%
15% -76.3% 0% -95.0%
20% -78.6% 0% -95.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$110 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$636
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$154
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $161 $218 +$58 (+36%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $90 $161 +$71 (+79%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $120 $136 +$16 (+14%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $111 $121 +$9 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $153 −$130 -85%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1 $0 +13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $163 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $23 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $153 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $94 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.82 · official $635.85 (match) · 24 history records