Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4831…6589 sports 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$3
other 22% −$2
politics 21% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
economics 7% −$1
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
world 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 5 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 128 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 118
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage163d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $36 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $166 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $74 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 09 $51 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 08 $23 $0 -1%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 06 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $36 9h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 90¢ $44 12d
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $45 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $43 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $44 20d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $34 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $34 32d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $44 39d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $45 40d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $8 125d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $38 125d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $38 125d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $9 125d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $27 125d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $27 125d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $2 125d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $27 125d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $2 125d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $1 125d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $45 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 125d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $41 125d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $41 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $43 125d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $47 125d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $47 125d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $44 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 474 history records