Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x4832…026e sports 21 markets active 5d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$182 (-6%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$447
14 days−$88
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$115
other 39% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -71.7% -74.4% 14% 14% -49.7%
≤30d 21 -35.0% -41.2% 43% 43% -15.5%
≤90d 21 -35.0% -41.2% 43% 43% -15.5%
all 21 -35.0% -41.2% 43% 43% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 43% -15.5%
10% -46.8% 29% -23.6%
15% -52.0% 29% -31.0%
20% -56.7% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$94 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage9d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 19 $53 −$49 -94%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $157 −$150 -95%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 19 $158 −$150 -95%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$205 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 −$152 -76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$25 -81%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $201 +$34 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $504 +$190 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $304 +$188 +62%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $154 +$145 +94%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $92 +$34 +37%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $93 −$90 -97%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world SELL Yes $3 5d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 21¢ $52 5d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 18¢ $53 5d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 18¢ $53 5d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY Yes 18¢ $53 5d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY Yes 20¢ $53 5d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 16¢ $53 5d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 20¢ $53 5d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 20¢ $53 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $48 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $201 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $203 7d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria $6 7d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $30 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $201 8d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $201 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $504 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 10d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 50¢ $31 13d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 51¢ $31 13d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 50¢ $31 13d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 50¢ $31 13d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 50¢ $31 13d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 70¢ $31 13d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 71¢ $31 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records