Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4833…17d5 sports 177 markets active 4d ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$212 (-3%) realized −$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%62W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$595
14 days−$595
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$121
other 14% −$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -61.3% -65.0% 13% 13% -70.9%
≤30d 31 -45.1% -50.3% 16% 16% -57.8%
≤90d 169 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 34% -13.2%
all 177 -9.4% -18.0% 35% 33% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 33% -13.9%
10% -25.9% 32% -22.1%
15% -33.1% 32% -29.6%
20% -39.6% 28% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$31 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses62 / 115
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage151d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$12 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 −$3 -12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$61 +201%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$34 +223%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs The Huns Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 13 $51 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $26 +$113 +442%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $76 +$130 +170%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $47 −$19 -39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $25 +$22 +87%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $51 +$120 +236%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 12 $25 +$25 +99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 11 $25 +$25 +97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $99 +$37 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner May 11 $5 +$12 +254%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 11 $26 +$51 +200%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner May 11 $26 +$60 +233%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner May 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Liudmila Samsonova vs Anastasia Potapova May 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens May 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner May 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner May 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 16¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 32¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 44¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 18¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 21¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 45¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 22¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 34¢ $33 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 29¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 42¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 24¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 25¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 20¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 28¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 48¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 24¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 45¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL B8 18¢ $23 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 20¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $92 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $49 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $15 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $23 21d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 31¢ $26 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 434 history records