Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4834…3694 world 21 markets active 3d ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$1
other 21% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 0% -9.1%
all 21 -18.6% -26.4% 48% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -33.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -39.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -45.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage442d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $38 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $78 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $119 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? Apr 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 28 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 04 $22 $0 +0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 23¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $21 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $37 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records