Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4834…1bfa
crypto · 84 markets active 8d ago
0.0score
+$140,615 +427%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$140,615 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$140,615
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses19 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
Avg bet$392
Trades / day125.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$140,826
30 days+$140,615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $720 $0 −$720 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $257 $0 −$257 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $524 $0 −$524 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $530 −$524 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $453 −$453 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $300 +$50 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20,534 +$144,522 +704%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $118 −$112 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 30 $257 −$246 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 30 $161 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 30 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 30 $480 −$480 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 30 $55 −$51 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $739 −$720 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 30 $595 −$583 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 30 $842 +$158 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 22 $265 −$255 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 22 $120 +$142 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 22 $160 −$153 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 21 $172 −$166 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 21 $87 −$82 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 21 $334 −$319 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 21 $69 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 21 $165 −$155 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 21 $307 +$140 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 21 $446 −$446 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 21 $109 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 21 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 21 $81 +$143 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 21 $41 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 21 $205 −$198 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 21 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 21 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 21 $132 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 21 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 21 $154 −$145 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 21 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 21 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 21 $55 +$120 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 21 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 21 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 21 $358 −$340 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 21 $396 +$360 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 21 $30 −$28 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$140,728
other 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 84 -10.6% -19.1% 23% 21% -34.5%
≤90d 84 -10.6% -19.1% 23% 21% -34.5%
all 84 -10.6% -19.1% 23% 21% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover125.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 21% -34.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 19% -40.7%
15% -33.9% 19% -46.5%
20% -40.4% 15% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1883 history records