Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
48 0x4837…cf88 crypto 1297 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$589 (+4%) realized +$587 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate73%942W / 354L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$477
14 days+$437
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$471
sports 1% −$40
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 313 +6.1% -4.0% 71% 71% -2.1%
≤30d 353 +3.4% -6.4% 64% 63% -3.0%
≤90d 360 +3.0% -6.8% 64% 63% -4.3%
all 1296 -0.3% -9.8% 73% 49% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 49% -7.2%
10% -18.4% 42% -16.1%
15% -26.3% 40% -24.2%
20% -33.5% 17% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$587
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses942 / 354
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1296 / 1297
History coverage121d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 0¢ 57¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$20 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $64 +$30 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $98 +$54 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$5 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $49 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.64 · official $1.44 (match) · 3056 history records