Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

48 0x483a…14bd other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$9 (+18%) realized +$7 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip

Net edge+33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown78%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+32.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+46.6%	+32.7%	50%	50%	+8.0%
≤30d	4	+46.6%	+32.7%	50%	50%	+8.0%
≤90d	4	+46.6%	+32.7%	50%	50%	+8.0%
all	4	+46.6%	+32.7%	50%	50%	+8.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+32.7%	50%	+8.0%
10%	+20.0%	50%	-2.3%
15%	+8.4%	50%	-11.8%
20%	-2.2%	50%	-20.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$15

Realized+$7

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown78%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	12¢	14¢	$13	$15	+$2 (+13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$9	+$5	+59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$16	−$8	-48%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$6	+$11	+185%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$6	−$1	-9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$14	1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$14	1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	61¢	$9	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	33¢	$9	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$16	16h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	SELL No	100¢	$16	17h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	BUY No	34¢	$6	25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$6	26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$6	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.79 · official $14.79 (match) · 9 history records