Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x483b…b2b2
sports · 17 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$4 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)7 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 10 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +39%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $8 +$6 +75%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 46% +$10
other 44% +$2
world 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 26m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 26m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $7 26m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 27m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $14 27m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 59m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $1 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 60¢ $5 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $3 7h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $5 12h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 13h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 14h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +51.6% +37.2% 100% 86% +27.2%
≤30d 7 +51.6% +37.2% 100% 86% +27.2%
≤90d 7 +51.6% +37.2% 100% 86% +27.2%
all 7 +51.6% +37.2% 100% 86% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.2% 86% +27.2%
10% ← realistic here +24.0% 86% +15.0%
15% +12.1% 71% +3.9%
20% +1.1% 29% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.41 · official $28.44 (match) · 25 history records