Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x483e…6bcc
politics · 14 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$5 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)4 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 10 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-28%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1845%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 79% −$9
other 10% −$4
culture 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+361.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +409.8% +361.2% 25% 25% +219.1%
≤30d 4 +409.8% +361.2% 25% 25% +219.1%
≤90d 4 +409.8% +361.2% 25% 25% +219.1%
all 4 +409.8% +361.2% 25% 25% +219.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +361.2% 25% +219.1%
10% +317.1% 25% +188.5%
15% +276.8% 25% +160.7%
20% +239.8% 25% +135.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.47 · official $21.47 (match) · 17 history records