Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x483f…b9de world 31 markets active 2d ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%8W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$1
other 9% $0
culture 4% −$1
tech 3% +$3
weather 2% −$9
sports 1% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 18 -2.9% -12.2% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 18 -2.9% -12.2% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 31 -2.3% -11.6% 26% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -10.3%
10% -20.1% 3% -18.9%
15% -27.8% 3% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 90% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses8 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage471d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $143 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 +$3 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $27 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $43 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $17 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -51%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 27 $8 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8? Mar 21 $6 +$3 +45%
Will "Wicked" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Wicked" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $7 $0 +0%
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 02 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3? Mar 02 $16 −$9 -54%
Will "Magic Candies" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $17 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $48 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $48 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $17 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $44 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $49 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $49 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records