Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4840…be60 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+14%) realized +$59 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$49
other 22% +$41
crypto 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +29.3% +17.0% 47% 47% +17.2%
≤30d 30 +29.3% +17.0% 47% 47% +17.2%
≤90d 30 +29.3% +17.0% 47% 47% +17.2%
all 30 +29.3% +17.0% 47% 47% +17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.0% 47% +17.2%
10% +5.8% 47% +6.0%
15% -4.4% 47% -4.2%
20% -13.8% 37% -13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$34 +185%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $2 +$9 +437%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$27 +872%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +132%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $16 +$18 +112%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$9 +170%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $18 +$8 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$26 +86%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $26 +$39 +148%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $9 +$10 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$5 +53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -99%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $18 +$7 +36%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U BUY 32¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 1h
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: C BUY 28¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY 34¢ $8 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL 96¢ $52 21h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $11 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $3 25h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $2 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 33¢ $18 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 16¢ $6 47h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY 18¢ $12 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $11 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $34 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $16 2d
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY 18¢ $14 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $14 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 86¢ $26 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $18 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $17 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.12 · official $35.54 · 56 history records