Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4841…1767 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$461 (+7%) realized +$534 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%29W / 52L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$749
crypto 13% +$63
other 10% −$403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -15.7% -23.7% 24% 24% -10.4%
≤30d 25 -15.7% -23.7% 24% 24% -10.4%
≤90d 25 -15.7% -23.7% 24% 24% -10.4%
all 81 +4.9% -5.1% 36% 36% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 36% -2.2%
10% -14.2% 35% -11.5%
15% -22.5% 33% -20.1%
20% -30.1% 30% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$54 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$534
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses29 / 52
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage229d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 11¢ 0¢ $75 $2 −$73 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$63 +207%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $203 −$112 -55%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $245 −$235 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $203 +$209 +103%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 −$3 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$241 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$20 -20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$145 +71%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $304 +$289 +95%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $299 −$287 -96%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $169 −$54 -32%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $91 +$447 +493%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$3 -13%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$18 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$25 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 01 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$20 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 01 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$25 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 01 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 01 $20 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 01 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 01 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 01 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 01 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 01 $40 +$33 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 23¢ $162 47m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 6¢ $21 59m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 7¢ $31 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 14¢ $31 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 16¢ $51 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 17¢ $20 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $61 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 57¢ $33 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $102 20h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 42h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 42h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 44h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 2¢ $10 44h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $412 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $197 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $42 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $444 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 22¢ $91 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $81 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $347 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $594 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.12 · official $2.12 (match) · 208 history records