Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4842…41a0 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$135 (-1%) realized +$613 · open −$748
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,155per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$4,736now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,327
economics 33% −$666
politics 10% −$900
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -8.9%
≤30d 5 -28.3% -35.1% 40% 40% -5.8%
≤90d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% +3.2%
all 6 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 50% +3.2%
10% -27.1% 50% -6.7%
15% -34.1% 50% -15.7%
20% -40.6% 50% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$603 vs −$433 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$4,736
Realized+$613
Unrealized−$748
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage35d
Avg bet$1,155
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 68¢ 66¢ $2,484 $2,402 −$82 (-3%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 47¢ 36¢ $3,000 $2,334 −$666 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 17 $716 −$700 -98%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 11 $208 −$200 -96%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $811 +$717 +88%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $499 +$380 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,736.30 · official $4,736.30 (match) · 21 history records