Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
48 0x4846…112d crypto 213 markets active 16h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+3%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate93%199W / 14L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$139
14 days+$144
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$131
politics 1% −$4
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 +4.3% -5.6% 97% 19% -6.0%
≤30d 138 +4.9% -5.1% 97% 20% -5.9%
≤90d 213 +0.5% -9.1% 93% 16% -6.8%
all 213 +0.5% -9.1% 93% 16% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 16% -6.8%
10% -17.8% 4% -15.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -23.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses199 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage75d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $52 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $52 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $52 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $52 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $48 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $48 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $48 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $48 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $48 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $80 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $81 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $81 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $48 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $45 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 432 history records