Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4846…32e0 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$414 (-50%) realized −$419 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$145
14 days−$145
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$334
other 10% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 53% -36.4%
≤30d 21 -22.7% -30.0% 43% 43% -58.7%
≤90d 21 -22.7% -30.0% 43% 43% -58.7%
all 21 -22.7% -30.0% 43% 43% -58.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 43% -58.7%
10% -36.7% 43% -62.6%
15% -42.8% 38% -66.2%
20% -48.4% 38% -69.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$47 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage22d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Hugo Gaston 71¢ 78¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 20 $16 −$16 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $45 +$12 +27%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $23 +$21 +89%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $14 +$10 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $8 +$6 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $4 +$4 +102%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $109 −$108 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $46 +$63 +138%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $27 +$19 +68%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $25 +$17 +66%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $80 −$79 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $78 −$77 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $2 +$2 +90%
Marta Kostyuk vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $114 −$112 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $50 −$49 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon BUY Hugo Gaston 71¢ $55 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Fritz 49¢ $11 28h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 64¢ $16 46h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 60¢ $40 46h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 80¢ $56 46h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 62¢ $45 47h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $44 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $23 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $14 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 68¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $4 2d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 63¢ $109 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 94¢ $109 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 59¢ $33 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $12 2d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) SELL Zverev 99¢ $46 2d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 41¢ $15 2d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 58¢ $27 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 99¢ $42 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 59¢ $25 2d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 60¢ $28 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $46 3d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Madison Keys 24¢ $9 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider BUY Madison Keys 57¢ $68 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jesper de Jong 10¢ $4 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Rafael Jodar 59¢ $4 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Rafael Jodar 30¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.04 · official $60.04 (match) · 36 history records