Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4847…a7a2
crypto · 56 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$89 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$198
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)45 / 56
History coverage46d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 11 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by April 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$35 +344%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $21 +$5 +22%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 28 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$7 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 27 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 27 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 27 $2 +$3 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 27 $9 +$9 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$18 +180%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$4 +42%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by April 30? Apr 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 27 $15 +$19 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 27 $15 +$11 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $55 −$52 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$106
crypto 41% −$14
sports 10% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $10 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 11h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $10 12h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 28¢ $4 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 12h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $6 22h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 22h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 32h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +62.4% +47.0% 60% 60% +44.9%
≤30d 5 +62.4% +47.0% 60% 60% +44.9%
≤90d 45 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 44% -24.2%
all 45 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 44% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 44% -24.2%
10% -24.7% 44% -31.5%
15% -32.0% 40% -38.1%
20% -38.7% 36% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.12 · official $197.61 (match) · 110 history records