Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4848…0e2c
other · 66 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$25 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$201
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)56 / 66
History coverage3d
Avg bet$657
Trades / day1055.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 10 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $3,775 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2,483 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $884 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $550 +$21 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $4,851 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $640 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $306 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $614 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $469 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $421 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $1,140 +$20 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2,269 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3,470 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $271 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $809 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $420 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,327 −$1 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $445 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $5,065 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$6
politics 20% +$17
world 12% −$1
economics 11% +$20
tech 10% −$2
crypto 10% −$2
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 2m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 2m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 9m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $104 10m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $90 10m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $110 10m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $7 10m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $7 10m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $68 11m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $70 11m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $41 11m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $68 11m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $60 12m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $60 12m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 12m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 12m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $20 12m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $20 12m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $40 12m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $137 12m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $40 12m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $153 12m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $153 12m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $32 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $32 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $32 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $32 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $32 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $32 13m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $32 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +0.1% -9.5% 5% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 56 +0.1% -9.5% 5% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 56 +0.1% -9.5% 5% 0% -9.5%
all 56 +0.1% -9.5% 5% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1055.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.58 · official $200.58 (match) · 3500 history records