Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4849…79ab other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$3
politics 22% −$4
sports 11% −$2
tech 9% −$1
world 8% −$1
economics 8% $0
finance 7% −$2
culture 7% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$891) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage91d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 29 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $1,287 −$3 -0%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? May 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $58 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 20 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 20 $909 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 20 $849 −$2 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $894 $0 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close May 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $865 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $817 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 30? Apr 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 30 $203 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 48m
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $1,297 55m
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,234 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $934 1h
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 99¢ $16 2h
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $351 2h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,287 2h
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? SELL No 98¢ $77 36d
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? BUY No 98¢ $61 36d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 36d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? SELL No 100¢ $12 36d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 36d
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? BUY No 98¢ $16 36d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 36d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? SELL No 100¢ $9 36d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? BUY No 100¢ $21 36d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $57 38d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 38d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $27 38d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $31 38d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 38d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? SELL Yes 100¢ $896 39d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL No 100¢ $57 39d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $21 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records