Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
48 0x484a…754a crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$199 (-11%) realized −$183 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%35W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$179
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$148
politics 13% +$3
other 8% −$13
world 6% +$10
sports 1% +$12
tech 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -25.9% -32.9% 43% 36% -23.0%
≤30d 76 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 38% -18.3%
≤90d 76 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 38% -18.3%
all 76 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 38% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 38% -18.3%
10% -17.0% 33% -26.1%
15% -25.1% 25% -33.3%
20% -32.4% 21% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized−$183
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses35 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)76 / 91
History coverage14d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 94¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 51¢ 22¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+36%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Yes 73¢ 44¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$28 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$28 +268%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $5 +$17 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.21 · official $377.47 (match) · 217 history records