Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x484a…6fa7 crypto 50 markets active 15h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%50W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$1
other 26% $0
weather 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 50 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses50 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage47d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? May 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? May 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 20? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 17? May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will DualShot Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C on May 13? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 13? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 10? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $18 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $24 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $21 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $20 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $26 18d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $23 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $21 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 26d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $23 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $23 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $22 30d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 30d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records