Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
48 0x484a…316a other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,111 (+23%) realized +$3,815 · open −$1,704
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$698
sports 36% +$2,035
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +32.6% +19.9% 50% 50% +39.5%
≤30d 16 +32.6% +19.9% 50% 50% +39.5%
≤90d 17 +37.6% +24.5% 53% 53% +39.8%
all 17 +37.6% +24.5% 53% 53% +39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.5% 53% +39.8%
10% +12.6% 53% +26.4%
15% +1.7% 53% +14.2%
20% -8.3% 53% +3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$548 vs −$237 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$906
Realized+$3,815
Unrealized−$1,704
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage66d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 18¢ $1,300 $658 −$642 (-49%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $210 $247 +$37 (+17%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1,100 $2 −$1,098 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $924 +$1,099 +119%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $516 +$1,556 +301%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $265 −$257 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - Jun 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 25 $271 −$271 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $412 +$479 +116%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $910 −$888 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $660 +$835 +127%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $335 −$258 -77%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $206 −$16 -8%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $293 +$369 +126%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $203 +$350 +173%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $156 −$43 -27%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $120 +$136 +114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $142 +$77 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - Apr 22 $27 +$33 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $215 13m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $206 13m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $428 24m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,131 45m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $925 46m
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,023 48m
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $924 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,133 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,072 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $265 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $516 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $791 3h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $101 6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 36¢ $99 6h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $810 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $412 16h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,218 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 9¢ $78 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $279 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 23¢ $278 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $88 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $190 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $206 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $206 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $207 22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $662 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $906.44 · official $906.44 (match) · 53 history records