Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x484c…9e74 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$167 (-27%) realized −$157 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$337
crypto 22% +$106
other 9% −$47
finance 4% −$25
sports 3% −$20
politics 2% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.3% -13.4% 31% 31% +37.3%
≤30d 13 -4.3% -13.4% 31% 31% +37.3%
≤90d 27 -20.3% -27.8% 19% 19% -40.3%
all 27 -20.3% -27.8% 19% 19% -40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 19% -40.3%
10% -34.8% 19% -46.0%
15% -41.1% 19% -51.3%
20% -46.8% 19% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$22 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage143d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$105 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$41 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +79%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$22 +208%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $15 +$121 +809%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 08 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 8h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 21h
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 73d
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, BUY Yes 5¢ $10 73d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 73d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 73d
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 73d
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, BUY Yes 14¢ $5 76d
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap BUY Yes 20¢ $45 76d
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, BUY Yes 17¢ $100 77d
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 78d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 82d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 82d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 82d
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, BUY Yes 13¢ $49 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.08 · official $30.11 (match) · 48 history records