Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x484c…ccb6 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,057 (-7%) realized −$1,073 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 43L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$98
14 days−$1,721
30 days−$1,326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$373
politics 19% +$6
sports 15% −$1,107
finance 11% +$165
economics 5% +$4
crypto 1% −$11
world 1% −$8
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.5% -13.6% 8% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 52 -12.1% -20.4% 23% 13% -18.9%
≤90d 57 -11.2% -19.7% 25% 14% -18.6%
all 57 -11.2% -19.7% 25% 14% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 14% -18.6%
10% -27.4% 7% -26.4%
15% -34.4% 5% -33.5%
20% -40.8% 4% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$45 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$1,073
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions5
Markets (closed)57 / 62
History coverage55d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $96 $114 +$17 (+18%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 34¢ 40¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+16%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 22 $256 −$23 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 $0 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $14 $0 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $1,051 −$36 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 $0 -2%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 16 $990 −$36 -4%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $178 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 $0 -4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $509 −$32 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $66 −$7 -11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $178 −$10 -6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Jun 14 $54 −$4 -8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $108 +$22 +21%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 −$2 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $23 −$6 -26%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Myanmar vs. Guam end in a draw? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Jun 14 $1,741 −$1,192 -68%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,045 −$213 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $88 −$1 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $344 −$51 -15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $414 −$15 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $301 −$3 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -18%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 13 $32 +$12 +37%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $16 −$6 -41%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $124 −$2 -2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 11 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $274 +$26 +10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $268 −$2 -1%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 07 $175 +$194 +111%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $540 −$38 -7%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $141 +$75 +53%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $262 +$38 +14%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $191 −$29 -15%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $462 −$30 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $533 +$33 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 01 $63 +$5 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? May 31 $92 −$4 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $74 1h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $81 1h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 55¢ $159 1h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $175 17h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 32¢ $7 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $7 43h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $98 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $26 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 34¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 39¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $19 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $9 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 70¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 23¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 42¢ $9 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $9 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $5 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $191 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 28¢ $141 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 28¢ $10 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 28¢ $28 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $178 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $14 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.59 · official $163.59 (match) · 293 history records