Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
48 0x484f…cee3 economics 7 markets active 1d ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$483 (-15%) realized −$513 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$457per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 55% +$39
world 29% +$3
other 16% −$525
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 6 -16.3% -24.2% 83% 0% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 0% -25.6%
10% -31.5% 0% -32.7%
15% -38.1% 0% -39.2%
20% -44.2% 0% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$525 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$513
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage138d
Avg bet$457
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 1¢ $300 $330 +$30 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $463 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 13 $460 +$2 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $459 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 15 $456 +$2 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $525 −$525 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $521 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $315 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $463 15d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $460 52d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $459 91d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $456 122d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 32¢ $525 128d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $521 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.00 · official $330.00 (match) · 13 history records