Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x484f…132d other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 31% −$2
sports 13% +$11
crypto 7% $0
politics 4% −$2
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -6.9% -15.8% 47% 3% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 3% -8.4%
10% -23.8% 3% -17.2%
15% -31.2% 3% -25.2%
20% -37.9% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage478d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $16 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $56 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $30 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $11 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $8 $0 -1%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Mar 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Coastal Carolina vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 06 $15 +$12 +79%
New Mexico vs. Nevada Mar 04 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $17 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $10 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $12 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $16 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $16 46h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $28 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $16 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 31d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 31d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 31d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 31d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $24 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $6 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $25 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $2 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 32d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 32d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $8 361d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.54 · official $27.59 (match) · 92 history records