Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
48 0x4854…e465 world 106 markets active 3h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%45W / 59L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$11
14 days+$24
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$49
other 36% +$3
politics 1% $0
finance 1% −$6
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 36 +2.7% -7.1% 53% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 43 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 5% -9.3%
all 104 +1.0% -8.7% 43% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.4% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses45 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage364d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 69¢ 50¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $197 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $196 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $185 +$9 +5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $190 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $184 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $209 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $187 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $193 +$13 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +59%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,550 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $140 −$10 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $24 +$1 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $578 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $123 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $308 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $345 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $113 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $388 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $190 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $214 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $199 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $178 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $286 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $159 +$21 +13%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $158 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1,052 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $90 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $310 +$13 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $173 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $163 −$6 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $145 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $148 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $148 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $955 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1,085 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $1,014 −$11 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $2,012 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $362 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $85 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $0 $0 -25%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 14 $7 +$5 +64%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $1 $0 -35%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $100 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $82 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $115 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $197 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $197 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $92 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $104 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $100 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $96 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $13 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $123 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 85¢ $3 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $132 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $175 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $16 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $144 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $46 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $56 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $53 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $98 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $51 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $184 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $186 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $169 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $104 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.34 · official $0.00 · 531 history records