Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4856…c521 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$2
other 29% $0
politics 9% +$10
crypto 7% $0
sports 5% −$2
tech 5% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.1%
all 43 +3.7% -6.1% 44% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 7% -8.7%
10% -15.1% 5% -17.4%
15% -23.3% 2% -25.4%
20% -30.8% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage448d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $49 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $40 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $96 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $12 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +9%
Will Williams be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $16 $0 -3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $6 $0 +4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $4 +$7 +160%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 15 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 14 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 08 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 05 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 10 $1 $0 +14%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $12 $0 -2%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 28 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $27 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $39 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $40 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $13 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $17 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $23 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $5 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $11 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $19 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $21 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $22 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $43 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $43 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $8 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $8 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.26 · official $43.26 (match) · 140 history records