Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

48
0x4856…5f01
crypto · 26 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses24 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage24d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 1 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 10? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 9? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will V2Box Pro - V2Ray Client be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $610b on May 31? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on May 29? May 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 26? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% $0
other 27% $0
weather 11% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $17 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $17 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $16 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $23 10d
Will V2Box Pro - V2Ray Client be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store BUY No 100¢ $18 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $17 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 14d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $610b on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on May 29? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $22 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 18d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $24 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 22d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 25 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 25 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
all 25 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.17 · official $15.17 (match) · 51 history records