Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4866…e268 crypto 188 markets active 6d ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-14%) realized −$51 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%49W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$52
sports 27% −$9
other 22% +$53
tech 6% −$4
politics 4% −$16
world 3% −$10
culture 3% −$11
economics 2% −$5
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -57.1%
≤30d 8 -63.2% -66.7% 12% 12% -73.6%
≤90d 24 -6.1% -15.0% 33% 33% -19.8%
all 184 -37.2% -43.2% 27% 23% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 23% -22.1%
10% -48.7% 19% -29.6%
15% -53.6% 18% -36.4%
20% -58.2% 14% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses49 / 135
Open positions4
Markets (closed)184 / 188
History coverage167d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa May 23 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 26 $1 +$2 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 26 $1 +$5 +525%
T20 Nigeria Invitational Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs South Africa Mar 22 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 21 $2 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 21 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 21 $1 +$1 +120%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 21 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 19 $1 +$1 +124%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026? Mar 06 $3 −$1 -48%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 04 $1 $0 +39%
Will South Africa win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 04 $6 +$1 +19%
Will West Indies win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 01 $2 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down on February 28? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 27 $3 +$2 +72%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 27 $5 −$4 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 28? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $6 +$14 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 21 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 52d
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 82d
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa BUY South Africa 50¢ $1 84d
T20 Nigeria Invitational Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs South Africa SELL Rwanda 10¢ $0 87d
T20 Nigeria Invitational Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs South Africa BUY Rwanda 45¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 88d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.87 · official $1.87 (match) · 411 history records