Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
48 0x486e…49f6 sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$150 (+24%) realized +$163 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$122
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +41.5% +28.0% 47% 47% +16.3%
≤30d 19 +41.5% +28.0% 47% 47% +16.3%
≤90d 19 +41.5% +28.0% 47% 47% +16.3%
all 19 +41.5% +28.0% 47% 47% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.0% 47% +16.3%
10% +15.8% 47% +5.2%
15% +4.6% 47% -5.0%
20% -5.7% 42% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +115% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$18 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$163
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 47¢ 42¢ $86 $76 −$10 (-12%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 47¢ 44¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-7%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$2 +43%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $84 +$83 +99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $21 +$21 +101%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $65 +$71 +110%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$5 +160%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $67 +$68 +102%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$10 +959%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$4 +132%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $67 +$56 +84%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $68 −$66 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $46 6m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 42m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $4 43m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $5 51m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $79 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $79 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $3 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $20 13h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $41 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $135 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $21 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $21 22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $41 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $8 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $21 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $46 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.63 · official $118.63 (match) · 41 history records