Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
48 0x4874…e7fe politics 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$801 (-0%) realized −$802 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%25W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,660per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$26
14 days−$75
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$265
politics 39% −$104
sports 16% −$448
world 4% −$21
economics 1% −$3
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 51 +1.8% -7.9% 14% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 117 -5.0% -14.1% 12% 9% -10.2%
all 147 +1.2% -8.4% 17% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 14% -9.8%
10% -17.2% 14% -18.5%
15% -25.2% 14% -26.3%
20% -32.5% 13% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,065) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$19 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$802
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses25 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,660
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $167 $168 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,948 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,287 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,416 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,398 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,573 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,803 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,720 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,395 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,939 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $771 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,586 −$5 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $974 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $55 +$42 +76%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $863 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $5,206 −$7 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $914 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $58 +$78 +134%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,913 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $76 +$66 +86%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $6,793 −$7 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,984 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $55 +$29 +52%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,871 −$3 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $206 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $36 +$18 +50%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,766 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $476 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $249 16m
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $779 19h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $779 21h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $849 21h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $850 24h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $839 39h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $841 42h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $584 44h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $585 46h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $649 47h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $650 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $748 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $749 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $827 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $828 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $701 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $702 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $753 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $754 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $602 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $602 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $681 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $682 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $625 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $626 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $639 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $640 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $688 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $689 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.77 · official $167.77 (match) · 565 history records